Revised 2 November 2026 · v1.0.0 · what changed

Code: github.com/herrrickshaw/india-trade-sector-policy-recommendations

Watch the walkthrough

Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/nURgVHB51Gk

Why it is useful

• Who benefits: policy students, think-tank staff and journalists who want sector calls laid out with the numbers and the reasoning attached.
• What it replaces: a long hunt through ministry releases. Each recommendation links an HS chapter, a FY2025-26 value, a growth rate and any existing scheme.
• Evidence from our read: the main JSON sorts import chapters into 'Act now', 'Scale existing scheme' and 'Different lever' tiers, naming chapters such as inorganic chemicals (+86.0%) and plastics (+45.8%).
• It flags two risks it says it cross-checked against NITI Aayog's Trade Watch: EU CBAM exposure on iron and steel exports, and a long decline in gems and jewellery exports.
• Claims are explicit, so you can disagree with a specific tier rather than a vague essay.

What it is for

The repo takes the chapter rankings and country concentration from india-trade-data-analysis, checks them against PLI scheme coverage and policy history, and produces tiered recommendations, a scheme report card, a quarterly report and dashboards. Open the live site or read the JSON.

This is policy analysis written by the repo author. It is not investment advice, legal advice or an official government view.

Who it is for

• Policy students and researchers
• Journalists looking for sourced sector talking points
• Analysts who want machine-readable tier lists to challenge or extend

What you need

Get the code and an AI assistant

You do not have to be a programmer. Get the repository, give it to an AI assistant, and ask in plain language. Any of these routes works:

git clone https://github.com/herrrickshaw/india-trade-sector-policy-recommendations.git
cd india-trade-sector-policy-recommendations
claude      # or: gemini

Install

1. Get the code

   git clone https://github.com/herrrickshaw/india-trade-sector-policy-recommendations.git
   cd india-trade-sector-policy-recommendations

2. Or open the live site

   https://herrrickshaw.github.io/india-trade-sector-policy-recommendations/

Quick start: commands and what you should see

List the import-substitution tiers

python3 -c "import json;d=json.load(open('data/sector_and_policy_recommendations_2026-07-18.json'))
for t in d['import_substitution_tiers']:print(t['tier'],t['label'],[(c['hs'],c['name'],c['growth_pct']) for c in t['chapters']])"

Three tiers, each with HS chapters and growth percentages, as in the sample output.

Sample outputs

Real output from a run on the date shown in the sources line; trimmed to fit.

Import-substitution tiers (FY2025-26)

data/sector_and_policy_recommendations_2026-07-18.json
Tier 1 Act now -- no scheme, genuine gap
  HS28 Inorganic chemicals    US$14,179.7m   +86.0%
  HS39 Plastics               US$22,234.5m   +45.8%
  HS88 Aircraft & spacecraft  US$13,774.8m   +80.9%
Tier 2 Scale existing scheme
  HS15 Fats & oils            US$19,777.0m   +97.9%  (NMEO-Oilseeds)
  HS31 Fertilisers            US$14,580.2m  +118.9%  (Urea investment policy)
Tier 3 Different policy lever needed, not PLI-shaped
  HS27 Mineral fuels          US$203,415.4m  +21.2%
  HS71 Gems & jewellery       US$109,430.2m  +69.1%

Layout reformatted from the JSON; values are as committed.

Country relationship tiers

country_relationship_tiers
Tier 1 De-risk: China, import exposure US$102,363.0m across 8 sectors
Tier 2 Diversify: USA, export exposure US$63,907.6m across 11 sectors
Tier 3 Monitor: Russia, UAE, Switzerland

The file's own notes explain each call, for example UAE and Switzerland deficits as bullion and re-export flows.

Two flagged risks

cbam_export_risk / declining_export_sector
CBAM: iron & steel + steel articles exports US$20,725.6m exposed
Declining: HS71 gems & jewellery, 8-year growth -29.9% (export view)

Both are described by the author as corroborated by NITI Aayog Trade Watch.

Ways to use it

Sample prompts for your AI assistant

Copy, paste and edit the parts in [brackets].

• Read data/sector_and_policy_recommendations_2026-07-18.json and explain in plain English why plastics is in Tier 1 while fertilisers is in Tier 2.
• Argue the strongest case against the 'De-risk China' tier using only the numbers in this repo.
• Turn the three export-growth tiers into a one-page briefing with the figures and the file each came from.
• Which recommendations here depend on a PLI scheme being in place, and where could I check each scheme's actual status?
• List the caveats the author documents and which ones weaken the tier assignments.

Limits and honest caveats

Sources: Repo herrrickshaw/india-trade-sector-policy-recommendations (README; data/sector_and_policy_recommendations_2026-07-18.json); underlying TRADESTAT, PIB and NITI Aayog sources as cited by the repo. Files read 19 October 2026; nothing re-fetched.

About this article: Researched, written and edited by Umashankar Triplicane Dwarakanathan, with AI research assistance; every figure is meant to trace to the primary source cited. See the Editorial Policy for how sourcing, AI use and corrections work.