The 2027-28 wheat MSP is up 1.0%, against 5.6% to 10.3% for oilseeds and lentils. With 480 lakh tonnes of wheat in the central pool, more than twice the buffer norm, the government has spent the past year lifting stock limits, reopening exports and failing to sell surplus wheat at auction.
Wheat’s Support Price Rose by ₹25, the Smallest Rise in Years. The Granaries Explain Why
On 30 September 2026 the Cabinet set the minimum support prices for the crops farmers will sow this winter and sell from April 2027. Wheat went up by ₹25 a quintal, from ₹2,585 to ₹2,610. That is a rise of 1.0%. The year before, it had gone up by ₹160, or 6.6%.
On this blog’s count, using the support prices for every rabi marketing season back to 2008-09, no year since then has seen a smaller percentage rise; in rupees, only the ₹20 rises of 2010-11 and 2011-12 were smaller. The other five rabi crops rose by between 1.4% and 10.3%. The reason is not hard to find in the government’s own granaries.
Six crops, one outlier
| Crop | MSP 2026-27 | MSP 2027-28 | Rise | Margin over cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safflower | 6,540 | 7,215 | +675 (10.3%) | 50% |
| Rapeseed-mustard | 6,200 | 6,613 | +413 (6.7%) | 96% |
| Masur (lentil) | 7,000 | 7,390 | +390 (5.6%) | 92% |
| Barley | 2,150 | 2,286 | +136 (6.3%) | 58% |
| Gram | 5,875 | 5,958 | +83 (1.4%) | 59% |
| Wheat | 2,585 | 2,610 | +25 (1.0%) | 106% |
₹ per quintal, rabi marketing season 2027-28, approved 30 September 2026. Margin is the government’s figure over the all-India weighted average cost of production (A2+FL); wheat’s cost is put at ₹1,264. Source: CCEA release (PIB 2316941), as reported.
Wheat’s small rise does not make it unprofitable. At ₹2,610 against a cost of ₹1,264, its margin is 106%, the widest of the six crops, and the government buys it in bulk in Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh. What the small rise does is narrow the gap between wheat and the crops the government wants farmers to plant more of: the oilseeds safflower and mustard, and the pulse masur, all of which got rises of 5.6% to 10.3%. The National Mission on Edible Oils needs oilseed output to grow about 10% a year, as this blog’s edible oil piece found.
Nineteen years of wheat support prices
Wheat MSP by rabi marketing season, ₹ per quintal, bonus excluded. Sources: Lok Sabha answers for 2009-10 to 2013-14; CCEA releases on PIB for later years, as reported.
The closest parallel is 2012. With stocks above the buffer norms, the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices recommended leaving wheat’s support price unchanged at ₹1,285 for 2013-14; the government overrode it and set ₹1,350. This time, the small rise was the government’s own choice; this blog could not find the commission’s report for the season to see what it recommended.
What is in the granaries
| Central pool, 1 September 2026 | Stock (lakh tonnes) | 1 October buffer norm | Multiple of norm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 479.92 | 205.2 | 2.3x |
| Rice | 390.53 | 102.5 | 3.8x |
| Total | 870.45 | 307.7 | 2.8x |
Stocks as of 1 September 2026, as reported from the Food Corporation of India’s figures; norms are the quarterly buffer norms set in 2015, which add up to the 307.7 lakh tonnes reported for 1 October. Wheat stocks fall through the year until the next harvest arrives in April.
India has had a good run of wheat harvests. Production reached a record 120.66 million tonnes, according to reports of the export decision, and the government bought about 34 to 35 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season, against a target first set at 30.3 million and later raised to 34.5 million: the most since 43.3 million tonnes in 2021-22. On 1 September the central pool held 480 lakh tonnes of wheat, more than twice what the buffer norms ask for on 1 October.
The rest of the policy record over the past year points the same way. Stock limits on wheat traders, imposed in May 2025 to hold down prices, were withdrawn in February 2026. Exports, banned since May 2022, were reopened in stages and then fully on 24 August 2026. Food Corporation auctions of surplus wheat drew so few buyers at the reserve price that they were suspended, and the food secretary was reported as saying domestic prices were depressed and exports would help farmers. A large rise in the support price would have added to stocks the government is already trying to sell.
How wheat policy turned in a year
| When | What |
|---|---|
| May 2022 | Wheat exports banned after a heatwave cut the crop and procurement fell to 18.8 million tonnes |
| 29 May 2025 | Stock limits imposed on wheat traders, wholesalers, retailers and processors |
| Oct 2025 | Wheat MSP for 2026-27 raised by ₹160 to ₹2,585 (6.6%) |
| Nov 2025 | Open-market sale auctions of FCI wheat start, then slow and are suspended for lack of buyers at the reserve price |
| 5 Feb 2026 | Stock limits withdrawn “following improved availability” |
| Feb 2026 | First export window: 2.5 million tonnes of wheat and 0.5 million tonnes of wheat products |
| Mar 2026 | Procurement target for 2026-27 set at 30.3 million tonnes, later raised to 34.5 million |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Export ban lifted entirely for wheat, atta, maida and semolina |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Wheat MSP for 2027-28 raised by ₹25 to ₹2,610 (1.0%) |
What would fix this
- The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices should publish its rabi price-policy report before the Cabinet decides, and the Cabinet release should say where it departed from the recommendation, so a 1% rise reads as a stated stock-management choice rather than something inferred from the granary figures.
- The Department of Food and Public Distribution should review the buffer norms set in January 2015, which still define “surplus” a decade later, against current offtake under the free-grain scheme, and publish the method.
- The Directorate General of Foreign Trade and the food department should publish a stock-linked rule for wheat exports, such as opening exports when central pool stocks exceed a stated multiple of the buffer norm, so traders and farmers are not working from a four-year ban followed by a sudden reopening.
- The Food Corporation of India should publish quantities offered and sold at every open-market sale auction, with the reserve price, so the gap between stocks and what the market will buy is on record.
- The Department of Agriculture should publish procurement as a share of production by state for each crop, so it is clear how much of the crop the support price actually reaches outside the main procuring states.
These are proposals from this blog, not recommendations any agency has adopted.
Sources and caveats
MSPs for 2027-28: CCEA and Ministry of Agriculture releases of 30 September 2026 (PIB 2316941, 2316956), as reported by Deccan Herald, The Tribune and Upstox; PIB pages could not be opened from this blog’s tools. Earlier wheat MSPs: Lok Sabha answers of 2012 (2009-10 to 2013-14) and CCEA releases thereafter; 2026-27 rise of 6.59% as reported by The Tribune. Central pool stocks on 1 September 2026 and the 307.7 lakh tonne 1 October norm: as reported in September 2026; wheat and rice norms from the 2015 buffer-norm notification. Procurement: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution (PIB 2236215, target of 30.3 million tonnes) and Rural Voice (revised target and progress); the final 2026-27 total differs between reports. Stock limits: PIB 2132343, 2160873, 2224021. Exports: DGFT notifications 34 and 35/2026-27 of 24 August 2026, as reported by World Grain and others; production figure and the food secretary’s remarks as reported. Open-market sale auctions: trade reports (Igrain). The 2012 CACP recommendation: Lok Sabha answers of 2012. The comparison with every season since 2008-09 is this blog’s calculation.
About this article: Researched, written and edited by Umashankar Triplicane Dwarakanathan, with AI research assistance; every figure is meant to trace to the primary source cited. See the Editorial Policy for how sourcing, AI use and corrections work.
