FY2025-26 Sample Report — India Trade, Currency & Policy Snapshot
MoSPI Dataset Analysis — FY2025-26 Sample Report
India's trade, currency & policy snapshot for FY2025-26 — every figure in one unit
A single consolidated reference for the fiscal year this whole repo has been tracking: merchandise trade, top chapters, country concentration, PLI scheme funding, currency and reserves — pulled from the datasets already collected for the bulletins above, cross-checked against independent sources, and standardised to one unit throughout.
ALL VALUES IN US$ MILLION UNLESS MARKED — ₹ crore figures (PLI schemes) each converted at that scheme's own elapsed-period average USD/INR rate, not one blanket rateSOURCES: TRADESTAT (tradestat.commerce.gov.in), TIA Portal (trade-analytics.commerce.gov.in), PIB press releases, RBI Weekly Statistical Supplement — all previously retrieved for this repo's other bulletins, recombined here. Retrieved/compiled 2026-07-18.
Merchandise exports
441,745.9
TRADESTAT figure; PIB agrees to within 0.01%
Merchandise imports
776,013.7
Confirmed across all 3 independent sources
Merchandise deficit
-334,267.7
PIB's figure: -333,190.0 (0.3% narrower)
GDP growth (real, FAE)
+7%
First Advance Estimate — expect revision
Trade balance — cross-validated against three independent sources
All figures US$ Million, FY2025-26.
| Source | Exports | Imports | Deficit | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRADESTAT (this repo's primary source) | 441,745.9 | 776,013.7 | -334,267.7 | baseline |
| TIA Portal (Dept. of Commerce) | 451,070.0 | 776,013.65 | -324,943.7 (implied) | exports +2.1% vs. baseline |
| PIB press release | 441,780.0 | 774,970.0 | -333,190.0 | agrees within 0.3% |
Imports and PIB's export/deficit figures agree with TRADESTAT to within rounding. TIA Portal's export total alone reads ~US$9,300M (2.1%) higher than both other sources — flagged in this repo's original cross-validation as most likely a data-vintage/provisional-revision difference (two of three sources still agree closely), not a methodology error. FY2025-26 is a still-provisional fiscal year on every source used here.
Top 12 import chapters, FY2025-26
Top 12 export chapters, FY2025-26
Values US$ Million. Source: hsn_historical_trends_2018-19_to_2025-26.json.
Top import-supplier countries
Top export-destination countries
Combined exposure across each country's top-8-ranked growth chapters. Values US$ Million.
PLI scheme funding, converted to US$ Million
Each scheme converted at its own elapsed-period average rate (see methodology below) — not one blanket rate for every row.
| Scheme | ₹ Crore (original) | Period averaged | Rate (₹/US$) | US$ Million | Covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLI Auto & Auto Components | 25,938 | FY22-23–FY24-25 | 82.61 | 3,139.8 | HS87 (vehicles) |
| PLI ACC Battery Storage | 18,100 | FY21-22–FY24-25 | 80.58 | 2,246.1 | EV value chain |
| PLI Bulk Drugs | 6,940 | FY22-23–FY24-25 | 82.61 | 840.1 | HS29/HS30 (APIs, pharma) |
| PLI Textiles (MMF) | 10,683 | FY21-22–FY24-25 | 80.58 | 1,325.7 | Mismatch vs. HS61/62 |
| PLI Specialty Steel 1.0/1.1 | 44,106 | FY21-22–FY24-25 | 80.58 | 5,473.4 | HS72/73 (iron & steel) |
| PLI Specialty Steel 1.2 | 11,887 | FY24-25 only† | 84.68 | 1,403.8 | HS72/73 (iron & steel) |
| PLI White Goods (committed) | 11,198 | FY21-22–FY24-25 | 80.58 | 1,389.6 | HS84 (compressors) |
| PLI White Goods (production target) | 190,050 | FY21-22–FY24-25 | 80.58 | 23,584.5 | Cumulative, FY2028-29 |
| PLI total cumulative outlay, 14 sectors (Dec 2025) | 197,000 | FY19-20–FY24-25 | 77.91 | 25,285.6 | All sectors |
Conversion methodology: each scheme is converted at the average of this repo's own FY-average USD/INR rates across the fiscal years the scheme has actually been active (e.g. Auto & Auto Components was approved Sept 2021 with disbursement from FY2022-23, so it's averaged over FY2022-23–FY2024-25, not a single blanket rate). This replaces an earlier version of this report that applied one fixed FY2024-25 rate to every row regardless of each scheme's own timeline — a real methodology error, corrected here. †PLI Specialty Steel 1.2 was only launched Nov 2025 (FY2025-26, still open) — no FY2025-26 average exists yet, so it uses the latest completed FY average (FY2024-25, ₹84.68) as the closest available proxy, flagged distinctly rather than blended with the multi-year schemes above. All rupee crore figures are still these schemes' own budgeted/disbursed unit — USD Million here is this report's own arithmetic for comparability, not official USD accounting.
Currency & reserves — two vintages, clearly separated
| Metric | Value | As of | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR spot rate | 96.3665 | 2026-07-17 | current |
| USD/INR FY2024-25 average | 84.68 | FY2024-25 | last completed FY avg |
| Forex reserves (MoSPI connector) | 698,100.0 | 2025-06 | 13 months stale |
| Forex reserves (RBI weekly scrape) | 675,157.0 | 2026-07-10 | current, use this one |
| Forex reserves, all-time peak | 728,494.0 | 2026-02-27 | confirmed peak |
The MoSPI connector's own forex series is frozen at June 2025; this repo's currency bulletin bridges that gap with a direct RBI Weekly Statistical Supplement scrape running through 10 Jul 2026. Use 675,157.0 (US$M), not 698,100.0, as "current" reserves — the two numbers are 13 months apart, not a contradiction.
Consistency-check log
Every cross-source check performed for this report.
Errata & scope notes
- This report re-derives every figure from datasets already collected for this repo's other bulletins — no new data collection. See each linked chart's own errata for original sourcing.
- Services trade for FY2025-26 is not yet published — this repo's services/overall-balance figures run only through FY2024-25 (published one year behind goods trade), so no FY2025-26 services surplus or true "overall balance" figure exists yet. Don't combine the FY2025-26 goods deficit above with an FY2024-25 services number as if both were the same year.
- All ₹ crore figures (PLI schemes) are converted to US$ Million at each scheme's own elapsed-period average exchange rate (₹77.91–84.68/US$, depending on the scheme — see the PLI table's "Period averaged" column) for comparability — this is this report's own arithmetic, not an official USD accounting these schemes use themselves. An earlier version of this report used one blanket FY2024-25 rate for every scheme regardless of its actual timeline; that was a methodology error and has been corrected.
- FY2025-26 is still a provisional fiscal year on every source cited here — expect all figures above to revise as the year closes and later data vintages are published.
- Underlying data: fy2025_26_sample_report_2026-07-18.json (this report's own consolidated dataset, incl. the period-matched PLI conversion table and external validation notes), plus source datasets tradestat_hsn_export_import, trade_data_cross_validation, hsn_historical_trends, sector_country_priority_and_pli_coverage, export_destination_priority_and_pli_coverage, rbi_forex_reserves, rbi_usd_inr_exchange_rate, gdp_growth_rate.
- Validated against NITI Aayog's Trade Watch Quarterly (8th edition, Q4 FY2025-26, via PIB PRID=2277232): India's blended goods+services trade reached $1.84 trillion in FY2025-26 (exports +4.2%, imports +6.5% y-o-y) — this repo's goods-only figures show export growth of just +0.92% over the same year, explained by services exports growing faster (+9.0% per NITI Aayog) and pulling the blended rate up, not a discrepancy. NITI Aayog's pharma-sector thematic figure ($35.8bn pharma+API exports) is ~$10.7bn higher than this report's own HS30-only figure ($25,073.4M) because it includes API exports that sit in HS29, not HS30 — consistent with this repo's existing PLI Bulk Drugs finding.
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